Assassinations and conspiracies

Lebanese and Syrian politics are way, way out of my area of expertise (usually confined to snarky analysis of Candy Crowley's choice of accessories), but the assassination this week of a scion of the Phalange party strikes me as very oddly timed.

The killing of Mr. Gemayel, the scion of a prominent Maronite Christian family, inflamed tensions between the anti-Syria coalition trying to hold its government together and the Syrian-allied opposition, led by Hezbollah, an Iranian-supported Shiite group. Hezbollah has threatened street protests if it is not given more power.

Lebanese radio reported that shots were also fired Tuesday into the Beirut office of Michel Pharaon, a Greek Catholic member of the ruling coalition and minister for parliamentary affairs.

Lebanon’s prime minister, Fouad Siniora, vowed in a televised speech on Tuesday that his government would hold firm. “I pledge to you that your blood will not go in vain,” Mr. Siniora said. “We will not let the murderers control the fate of Lebanon and the future of its children.”

In truth, his government may already be on life support. Last week, six pro-Syria ministers aligned with Hezbollah resigned after a failed effort to gain greater control over the government. A seventh minister had resigned earlier in an unrelated conflict.

With Mr. Gemayel’s death, there may now be too few ministers to pass any measures, and it appears that if the government were to lose one more minister it would automatically collapse.

The prime minister’s political allies in the so-called March 14 coalition — a pro-Western group of Sunni Muslims, Druse and Christians — blamed Syria for the killing.

“We believe the hand of Syria is all over the place,” Saad Hariri, the son of the assassinated former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, said on Tuesday, shortly after Mr. Gemayel was pronounced dead.

Today, the Druse leader, Walid Jumblatt, said he expected more bloodshed.

“It seems the Syrian regime will continue with the assassinations,” he said at a news conference, according to a report by Reuters. “I expect more assassinations but no matter what they do, we are here and we will be victorious.”

Officials in Damascus and Syria’s allies in Lebanon condemned the killing.

Mr. Gemayel, the industry minister, was the fifth anti-Syria figure to be killed since Mr. Hariri’s assassination rocked Lebanon in February 2005.

The killing reverberated far beyond Lebanon. Condemnations poured in from Britain, Germany, Italy, France, the European Union, Jordan, Egypt and the United States.

President Bush suggested in a statement that the assassination was part of a plan by Syria, Iran and its allies to “foment instability and violence” in Lebanon.

The United States is heavily invested in the survival of Mr. Siniora’s government, which has offered Washington a chance — however faded — to thwart the spread of Iranian influence in the region.

The killing also is likely to complicate any American effort to enlist Syria’s help to stabilize Iraq. The United States withdrew its ambassador from Damascus after Mr. Hariri was assassinated nearly two years ago and suspicion fell heavily on Syria. Now the White House is under pressure domestically and abroad to engage with Syria and Iran to quell the violence in Iraq.

But the suspicion that Syria is behind the efforts to destabilize Lebanon will make it nearly impossible for Washington to send a full ambassador back to Damascus without appearing to have abandoned the Siniora government.

At the same time, any allegation of Syria’s involvement is likely to antagonize Syrian officials — and make them even more reluctant to back off of a military, political and economic alliance with Iran.

For a time, after the initial occupation of Iraq and the assassination of Mr. Hariri, Syria’s ruling elite felt threatened, vulnerable and isolated. Syria was humiliated when it was forced, after the Hariri killing, to withdraw its military forces from Lebanon.

But in recent days, Syria has found its strategic stature in the Middle East bolstered by the surge of violence in Iraq, and the suggestion that Washington might soon ask for its help. While it has denied any role in any of the Lebanon violence, it has not denied its desire to reinsert itself as the primary force in Lebanon.

Syria was on the verge of having enormous leverage in its dealings with the United States. It seemed likely that the Bush administration would have to get over its "loathing" of Bashir al-Assad and deal with his government over the security situation in Iraq. This seems timed specifically to make sure such talks won't be happening any time soon. Whether it's "rogues" within his government or some other actor I can't hazard a guess, but it strikes me just as likely to undermine his government as it is undermining Lebanese security.