Extra: Man bites dog!

What? Are Democrats in Congress showing some interest in engaging in smart politics?

This is an easy one, and Obama needs to be out in front of this one, leading the charge in support of a popular tax cut for the middle class and in opposition to an unpopular tax cut for the wealthiest 1% of Americans. Let the Republicans "hold the middle class hostage" if they so choose. Democrats can hand them the gun to do it. Maybe even cut out the letters for the ransom note.

Glimmers

I'm always reluctant to gauge voter sentiments six months before a vote, but Dan Balz finds things looking up in the latest WaPo/ABC poll.

The current story line for Election 2010 took shape in the period beginning last summer and running through the first month of this year. That's when Obama's approval ratings fell, and tea party activists became the symbol of discontent. It is also when the health-care battle exposed much that the public found repulsive about the legislative process. And of course, there was Scott Brown's shocking victory in Massachusetts.

Since then, other things have happened. The health-care bill, whose demise would have been devastating to the Democrats, became law (though under the most partisan of circumstances). That hasn't changed public attitudes on the measure, which remain hardened and evenly divided, but it has pushed that debate off center stage, to the relief of the White House. In its place has come financial regulatory reform, an issue where Democrats are playing offense, Republicans are playing defense and a bipartisan outcome remains possible.

Meanwhile, a number of indicators show that an economic recovery is underway, a recovery that might be stronger than anticipated. Unemployment remains stuck closer to 10 percent than the 8 percent ceiling the administration promised long ago. But other measures might give people confidence that better times are coming.

For his part, Obama appears to be warming to a battle with the opposition. His moment of truth came after the Massachusetts election, when he was faced with the question of whether to scale back on health care in hopes of attracting Republican votes and assuring passage of at least something, or going for broke in a partisan brawl. He chose to fight. Since then, the president has appeared more comfortable with a posture of confrontation, when necessary, than he was when he first took office.

In the Post-ABC poll, there were a handful of indicators that, if sustained, could change the political climate -- but only if the Democrats can find a way to keep them going.

It's helpful to remember that Mitch McConnell and Republicans in Congress are no smarter than they were when they lost their majority in the 2006 midterms. The filibuster of finreg this week may well prove, at least temporarily, to have been an unnecessary mistake -- especially if they offer up an "alternative" that isn't all that different from the Dodd bill. Obama and Dems still win if a bipartisan bill passes.

UPDATE: Exactly:

The Democrats want to have a tough financial reform bill as an accomplishment, and they also want Republicans to oppose reform unanimously so they can show that the party is carrying water for Wall Street. The two goals are in tension. The sweet spot is for Republicans to spend several days opposing reform in a high-profile fight in which Democrats attack them as Wall Street stooges, and then cave in and make a bipartisan agreement. What I don't understand is why the GOP is letting the Democrats have the best of both worlds.

More good news for Republicans -- the Civil Rights disaster

On the Sunday Idiot Shows, Newt Gingrich helpfully pointed out that passage of comprehensive health care reform is the worst political disaster for Democrats since passage of Civil Rights legislation under LBJ.

Former Republican House speaker Newt Gingrich said Obama and the Democrats will regret their decision to push for comprehensive reform. Calling the bill “the most radical social experiment . . . in modern times,” Gingrich said: “They will have destroyed their party much as Lyndon Johnson shattered the Democratic Party for 40 years” with the enactment of civil rights legislation in the 1960s.

Quickly called on that -- that overcoming decades of apartheid and doing the morally correct thing was probably worth the price (that LBJ himself recognized), Gingrich quickly backs away.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was quoted Sunday as saying that President Obama and the Democrats, by passing comprehensive health care legislation, "will have destroyed their party much as Lyndon Johnson shattered the Democratic Party for 40 years" with the passage of civil rights legislation.

The article went on to note how Johnson's support for civil rights legislation broke apart the North-South coalition in the old Democratic Party and led to the realignment of the South into solid Republican territory.

Gingrich responded with several emails saying that the context misrepresented his views by implying that he believed Johnson was wrong to sign the major civil rights legislation of the 1960s. To the contrary, he said, the civil rights revolution of 1956-1965 was "morally absolutely necessary" for the country and Johnson was correct in pushing for the legislation. Other Johnson actions, he said, inflicted more damage to the Democratic coalition.

Not only is this guy unfit to be president, he's unfit to teach history. He was absolutely correct, in the first case, to note that Civil Rights legislation did in fact rupture the Democratic Party. Yes, the war would prove LBJ's undoing, but it was Civil Rights that broke the South from the Democratic Party. And good riddance, even if it did result in Nixon, Wallace, and Reagan (and, alas, Gingrich).

That southern arm of the Party no longer exists in any real sense. The correlation couldn't be farther from the truth. What is true is that, yes, many Democrats are going to face tough odds in November, but tackling one of the most intractable problems of our times and doing something that is morally upstanding seems worth what will be a tough price to pay for individual politicians and a brief one for the Party, but will stand as nearly as great an achievement as was Civil Rights was nearly 50 years ago.

Who you gonna serve?

A new poll is encouraging. It finds that the majority of people who opposed the passage of a health care reform bill and the end of DADT wouldn't think of voting for a Democrat anyway.

In other words, letting these initiatives die in the hope that voters will vote for a Democratic incumbent does not have any basis in reality. Working for the agenda of those that oppose you and not for the agenda of those who voted for you is not especially bright. Even for Democrats.

In other, other words, act on your campaign promises.

A change is gonna come

And change we can believe in, too, though only by a five vote margin. Having a majority has consequences and having Waxman leading Energy and Commerce should help move a progressive agenda through Congress more seamlessly.

Meanwhile, for the minority...

In his remarks to the Republicans, Mr. Boehner said two straight elections with significant losses had provided Republicans with an opportunity to get themselves back on track if they come up with innovative approaches, promote reform and strike the right tone in expressing their opposition to a government controlled by Democrats.

“In recent years Americans lost faith in us, stopped believing we are what we claim to be,” Mr. Boehner told his colleagues. “There are various views on why. Some blame President Bush. Others blame Congressional Republicans and our own actions during our 12 years in the majority. While there are many views on why Americans lost their faith, we’re unanimous on one thing: it’s time to win it back.”

The House Republican caucus has so far balked at a chance to meet with Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the former House Democratic strategist who has been named the new White House chief of staff. Mr. Emanuel, who has been reaching out to Congressional Republicans since his selection as chief of staff, is set to meet on Thursday with some Senate Republican leaders and individually with some House Republicans.

A new tone, indeed.

The shift

This map indicates just how great a shift the country took towards the Democrat Party on Tuesday. Of course, it also shows a swath of counties where voters actually shifted more towards the Republican ticket. Looking at where they're located, I'm sure I have no idea why.

But we must not take this to be any indication that Obama and his party have a mandate. No, that would be just wrong.

Longtime readers will, I'm sure, be relieved that the schmaltz has been reliably replaced by the snark once again.

Somethin's happenin' here

Forget Appalachia, the real news this morning is out of Mississippi, and it could not be any worse for the GOP.

The Democrat, Travis Childers, a local courthouse official, pulled together a coalition of blacks, who turned out heavily, and old-line “yellow dog” Democrats, to beat his Republican opponent, Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven, a Memphis suburb. With 99 percent of the precincts reporting, the vote was 54 percent for Mr. Childers to 46 percent for Mr. Davis.

The seat had been in Republican hands since 1995, and the district, largely rural and stretching across the northern top of Mississippi, had been considered one of the safest in the country for President Bush’s party, as he won here with 62 percent of the vote in 2004.

Having lost a similar Congressional race this month in Louisiana, Republicans had worked desperately to win this contest, sending Vice President Dick Cheney to campaign for Mr. Davis, along with Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas; President Bush and Senator John McCain recorded telephone messages that were sent to voters throughout the district.

Merle Black, a Southern politics expert at Emory University, called a Democratic victory potentially “a huge upset, and an indication of a terrible year ahead for the Republicans.” He added, “In theory, this should be an easy win for them.”

Mimicking a strategy that proved successful in 2006, Democrats ran staunch conservatives in both this and the Louisiana race, forcing their Republican opponents to attack national party figures as surrogates.

And congratulations, California.

Senator Warner

Retires! Maybe Bush will send a few symbolic soldiers home for Christmas as a retirement present. Respectfully.