He should have just focused on "Midnight Basketball" programs, I suppose
Jonathan Chait pushes back on the latest piece of Conventional Wisdom Inside the Beltway (CWIB), that if only Obama hadn't tried so hard to (successfully) pass so many big policy initiatives he'd be as popular as he was on election day.
He then goes on to revisit the one term of George H.W. Bush who, in the midst of a much milder recession than we have today, was attacked for lacking a domestic agenda.
That's pretty much spot on, but I take exception with his implication that somehow a smaller stimulus package would have avoided "any economic ill effects." Truth is, the stimulus that was enacted was too weak, but it did keep the unemployment rate from rising any higher. A larger one -- a more controversial one -- likely would have helped much, much more, particularly in aid to state governments.
Anyway, I'd go further than Mr. Chait. Ever since Obama first announced his candidacy, the media has underestimated he and his team's relentless focus on the long view, and I think they're underestimating that now. The Washington press also has consistently misunderstood Obama's approach. I'm sure they think he's bullshitting them when he says he'd rather be a successful one-term president then a two-term president who fails to get anything meaningful accomplished. I don't think he is bullshitting when he says that. He and his team were also keenly aware, from the morning following that wonderful night in Grant Park, that they had an extremely limited window in which to work. Only a fool would have expected that in this economy and with a history of the president's party losing seats in midterms, that they could take their time in rolling out their agenda. They understood that momentum is all and that the largest majorities in 40 years was not going to be permanent (though I doubt they understood just how lock-step Republican opposition to...anything...would be).
The fact that within 18 months or so the administration has helped (with all props to Pelosi and Reid) push through Congress major stimulus, Lily Ledbetter, the hugely successful "cash for clunkers" program, the 60 year old dream of health care reform, the most comprehensive reform of the financial system since FDR's administration all point to indications of a very impressive first term.
But yes, that is all BIG political accomplishments. BIG, at at time when the CWIB keeps reminding us that we don't do BIG anymore. At a time when the opposition party can take advantage of the size and scope of the accomplishments and cynically manipulate ignorant voters, and that getting 61 votes for a bill is "bludgeoning." At a time when the press does little to push back on rhetoric about "socialism," "job-killing," "bank bailouts," and "death panels." At a time -- let's face it -- when the racism and unhinged hatred that had been bubbling just at the surface during the campaign, has bloomed like red algae in August.
At a time when unemployment stubbornly remains at over 9% even as the business climate steadily improves.
At a time for chrissakes, when Republicans stroke claims that Obama's very presidency is unconstitutional.
And come the August congressional recess, when the campaign season finally begins in earnest, I think much of that misrepresentation is going to start getting pushed back on in a big way. Maybe that push back doesn't prove successful, but to say that Obama's policy achievements are political failures because of poll numbers in July or because Dems may lose a seat or two in the Senate and a few more in the House is short sighted indeed.
But. Oh. Shit. I'm on the same page as Krauthammer?
Politico's big news analysis yesterday made a similar point. As this appears to be a new conventional wisdom -- Obama's big policy agenda has driven down his popularity -- it's worth considering a counterfactual: what if Obama didn't have an ambitious domestic agenda? Some downsides spring to mind immediately: he'd be abandoning his campaign platform, he'd be seen as weak and ineffectual, his base would be in full revolt. Would Republicans be less wild-eyed with rage? They were no less apoplectic at Bill Clinton even after Clinton abandoned his ambitious agenda. The conservative mood is like the sound system in Spinal Tap, always set at 10 on a scale of 1 to 10, but occasionally cranked up to 11.
He then goes on to revisit the one term of George H.W. Bush who, in the midst of a much milder recession than we have today, was attacked for lacking a domestic agenda.
Even if Obama had the political space with Democrats to abandon his campaign platform, and even if he could have enacted some non-controversial stimulus without any economic ill effects, voters would still be upset over the economy. The accusation would simply be that he's an impotent bystander to the crisis. It's certainly true that voters disapprove of the stimulus. But that's no reason to assume that Obama had any more politically expedient course of action at hand. Different world leaders have tried all sorts of domestic approaches during the economic crisis, and pretty much all of them have seen their popularity fall.
That's pretty much spot on, but I take exception with his implication that somehow a smaller stimulus package would have avoided "any economic ill effects." Truth is, the stimulus that was enacted was too weak, but it did keep the unemployment rate from rising any higher. A larger one -- a more controversial one -- likely would have helped much, much more, particularly in aid to state governments.
Anyway, I'd go further than Mr. Chait. Ever since Obama first announced his candidacy, the media has underestimated he and his team's relentless focus on the long view, and I think they're underestimating that now. The Washington press also has consistently misunderstood Obama's approach. I'm sure they think he's bullshitting them when he says he'd rather be a successful one-term president then a two-term president who fails to get anything meaningful accomplished. I don't think he is bullshitting when he says that. He and his team were also keenly aware, from the morning following that wonderful night in Grant Park, that they had an extremely limited window in which to work. Only a fool would have expected that in this economy and with a history of the president's party losing seats in midterms, that they could take their time in rolling out their agenda. They understood that momentum is all and that the largest majorities in 40 years was not going to be permanent (though I doubt they understood just how lock-step Republican opposition to...anything...would be).
The fact that within 18 months or so the administration has helped (with all props to Pelosi and Reid) push through Congress major stimulus, Lily Ledbetter, the hugely successful "cash for clunkers" program, the 60 year old dream of health care reform, the most comprehensive reform of the financial system since FDR's administration all point to indications of a very impressive first term.
But yes, that is all BIG political accomplishments. BIG, at at time when the CWIB keeps reminding us that we don't do BIG anymore. At a time when the opposition party can take advantage of the size and scope of the accomplishments and cynically manipulate ignorant voters, and that getting 61 votes for a bill is "bludgeoning." At a time when the press does little to push back on rhetoric about "socialism," "job-killing," "bank bailouts," and "death panels." At a time -- let's face it -- when the racism and unhinged hatred that had been bubbling just at the surface during the campaign, has bloomed like red algae in August.
At a time when unemployment stubbornly remains at over 9% even as the business climate steadily improves.
At a time for chrissakes, when Republicans stroke claims that Obama's very presidency is unconstitutional.
And come the August congressional recess, when the campaign season finally begins in earnest, I think much of that misrepresentation is going to start getting pushed back on in a big way. Maybe that push back doesn't prove successful, but to say that Obama's policy achievements are political failures because of poll numbers in July or because Dems may lose a seat or two in the Senate and a few more in the House is short sighted indeed.
But. Oh. Shit. I'm on the same page as Krauthammer?
posted by John at 1:14 PM
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