Counting votes, distrusting colleagues

Greg Sargent interviews the House Majority Whip who says he's got the votes to pass the Senate bill...if Obama throws his weight behind it tomorrow night and the Senate agrees to "fix it" through reconciliation.

In an interview with me, House majority whip James Clyburn also urged the President to throw his weight behind this approach during tomorrow’s State of the Union Address, declaring that it would be “helpful.”

The comments from Clyburn — who’s been canvassing opinion from members in recent days — could contribute to a growing sense that this is course of action most likely to succeed, and could give ammo to to those pressing this case.

“I feel certain that the House Democrats will pass health care reform if the fixes that we feel need to be made to the Senate bill are guaranteed,” Clyburn said. Asked directly if the House votes would be there if this happened, Clyburn said: “Yes, sir.”

But they sure don't trust their colleagues across the hall and want any promises in writing.

Meanwhile, it's useful to read David Hersenhorn's and David Pear's explanation of the politics and procedures of going this route, which seems the only route that doesn't lead to the Land of Fail.

And, just to say it, every big speech Obama's given -- the 2004 Democratic convention keynote, the Philadelphia "Race Speech," the 2008 acceptance speech in Denver, the health care speech back in September -- seems to carry with it more import than the last. Tomorrow's speech seems to fall into that category. Most SotU speeches are little more than numbing lists of successes and proposals, but this one is going to have to do more than provide a list of goodies to the American people ("Mars, bitches!"), although I'm sure it will do that. It's going to have to convince Congress to do the right thing and convince at least the half of viewers who are still capable of being convinced that it is the right thing.

This is what he ran for and this is why we -- me, anyway -- voted for him.