Rooting for Ahmadinejad

U.S. and European diplomats are doing everything they can to avoid being seen as supporting the reform candidate in Iran, lest said candidate be seen as a puppet of the West. They go even farther, though, saying Ahmadinejad's victory -- whether he or the religious leadership stole it or not -- is actually the best case scenario.

"We even had a nightmare scenario yesterday," a senior European diplomat said the day after the meeting with Burns and Ross in March. If a moderate were elected and negotiations with Iran still went nowhere, how would the U.S. and Europe stop Iran from going nuclear? With its centrifuges spinning, Iran could continue to amass enriched uranium while presenting to the outside world an openness to compromise, the diplomat explained. When it came time to confront a stalling Iran by dropping the carrots and applying the sticks, said the senior European diplomat, "Try to imagine how difficult it would be to say 'I stop, I don't negotiate anymore,' " if a moderate were in charge in Tehran. (See TIME's photos of the Iranian elections and protests.)

In the days since Iran's troubled election, hard-liners in Israel and neoconservatives in America have made no secret of their glee at still having Ahmadinejad as an antagonistic foil to help build support for taking a tougher line on Tehran's nuclear ambitions. But there is also widespread relief in the Administration, as well as among some moderates on Capitol Hill and in Europe, at the result. Despite all the attention paid to the office of the Iranian presidency, nuclear policy is set by the religious leaders of the country, and they have shown a determination to amass enriched uranium regardless of whether hard-liners or moderates have been President. (See TIME's photos: "The Long Shadow of Ayatullah Khomeini.")

Still, in addition to his power over domestic and economic policy, the Iranian President is the face for the country abroad. And in that respect, a victory by Mir-Hossein Mousavi would have presented a worst-case scenario for Western efforts to curtail Iran's nuclear program, senior Administration officials said Sunday. He would have presented a softer, less confrontational face to the outside world. And he would have been able to stall even before he entered into negotiations with the excuse of taking all summer to get a new Cabinet and negotiating team in place.

While that sounds pretty realpolitik in the face of disappointed reformers in Iran, it makes logical sense. And it raises the question, if the religious leaders did steal the election, why? A moderate reformer would have eased their people's real economic complaints at least for a while and would have softened the regime's image around the world while doing nothing to diminish their power or stopping the centrifuges.