Power corrupts
Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball, looks at how the Okland A's -- in Moneyball fashion -- choose players out of college with the highest On Base Percentage, the most valuable statistic with which to rate hitters.
Then they take these young hitters who have a proven knack for getting on base and try to turn them into sluggers.
Usually it doesn't work. The piece follows the relative career arcs of two players. One's a tiny guy who slaps the ball "where they ain't." But he's told that despite his initial success in A and Double A he won't make it to The Show because those flares and bloops will be outs against the better defense of a major league team. He tries to adjust by learning to pull the ball and hit homers and he fails utterly. His failure at Triple A just reinforce the doubters that he's not big enough to play in the big leagues.
The other guy is also a hitter adept at taking pitches outside and hitting them to the opposite field, the secret (along with plate discipline to take bad pitches) to high OBP. But this kid is 6-3, 220 lbs so it's assumed that he is capable of hitting bombs. And he learns to just ignore the minor league instructors who tell him to start pulling the ball. He continues to use his whacky swing and get on base, and eventually finds himself traded to the Royals in last year's Beltran's transaction. And once he finds himself on a major league roster team officials stop trying to change him.
It's a fascinating look at how even if your organization is run by Billy Beane, the guys in the minor leagues still follow stale old ideas that power is the best predictor for major league success.
Well, if the steroid scandal has any positive effect on the game we can only hope that it brings an end to the reliance of power and a new obsession with just getting on base.
Then they take these young hitters who have a proven knack for getting on base and try to turn them into sluggers.
Usually it doesn't work. The piece follows the relative career arcs of two players. One's a tiny guy who slaps the ball "where they ain't." But he's told that despite his initial success in A and Double A he won't make it to The Show because those flares and bloops will be outs against the better defense of a major league team. He tries to adjust by learning to pull the ball and hit homers and he fails utterly. His failure at Triple A just reinforce the doubters that he's not big enough to play in the big leagues.
The other guy is also a hitter adept at taking pitches outside and hitting them to the opposite field, the secret (along with plate discipline to take bad pitches) to high OBP. But this kid is 6-3, 220 lbs so it's assumed that he is capable of hitting bombs. And he learns to just ignore the minor league instructors who tell him to start pulling the ball. He continues to use his whacky swing and get on base, and eventually finds himself traded to the Royals in last year's Beltran's transaction. And once he finds himself on a major league roster team officials stop trying to change him.
It's a fascinating look at how even if your organization is run by Billy Beane, the guys in the minor leagues still follow stale old ideas that power is the best predictor for major league success.
Well, if the steroid scandal has any positive effect on the game we can only hope that it brings an end to the reliance of power and a new obsession with just getting on base.
posted by John at 2:16 PM
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