Choosing a Pope

John Paul II, 1920-2005
Originally uploaded by vegacura.

Karol Wojtyla was the pope for so long, I had forgotten how fascinating is the entire process.

After a doctor certifies his death, tradition calls for the Vatican camerlengo, Cardinal Eduardo Martinez Somalo, who will run the Vatican until a new pope is chosen, to call out his baptismal name three times. He then strikes the pope's forehead with a silver hammer to ensure he is dead. The hammer is then used to destroy the papal ring, the symbol of his authority.

And the politics. In the case of John Paul II, it is remarkable how much the Church was remade in his image.

With all but three of the cardinal electors having been appointed by John Paul, nearly all his potential successors fit his mold of doctrinal conservatism on issues like abortion and euthanasia, birth control, homosexuality and the ordination of women. So the more pivotal factors are likely to be the candidates' nationality and professional experience.

Vatican observers have spent years now honing their ever-changing lists of cardinals who are "papabile," or potential popes. Although the chosen successor may not have made any of these lists, there are certain names that keep cropping up as the cardinals to watch.

Among the third-world contenders most often mentioned is an African, Cardinal Francis Arinze, a Nigerian with a winning personality, a compelling conversion story and years in the Vatican handling dialogue with leaders of other religions, including Islam - a useful experience for whoever is the next pope.

Several Latin American cardinals are also frequently cited. One is Cardinal Oscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga, the archbishop of Tegucigalpa, Honduras, who advanced a social justice agenda for years as president of the Federation of Latin American Bishops' Conferences. Another is Cardinal Claudio Hummes, the archbishop of São Paulo, Brazil, a Franciscan who was born in Brazil of German parents. He, too, is outspoken about social justice for the poor. But he is also said to be more theologically conservative than his predecessor as archbishop of São Paulo.

But Vatican experts say the Italian cardinals have spent this long papacy figuring out how to get it back, and are not likely to cede it once again to an outsider. The pope, among his other titles, is after all the bishop of Rome, and many believe that if there is a clear front-runner from Italy, he will be considered first.

One Italian being watched is Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi of Milan, a moral theologian who is close to Opus Dei, an organization of conservative Catholics. Another is Cardinal Angelo Scola, the patriarch of Venice, a media-savvy intellectual who has written about bioethics, which is surely one of the immediate issues facing the next pope.

I think that with the legacy of John Paul II, the Church has passed the Italians by.